Study Details | Pathways to Work

101082-Study of OpenResearc

Study quality: High

High

Reason for the rating: This study received a high study quality rating because it is a randomized controlled trial with low attrition, suggesting the findings can be attributed to the program.

Program: OpenResearch Unconditional Income Pilot

Services provided:

Unconditional cash transfers

Setting: Tested in multiple settings

Methods and Standards Protocol version used for review: Version 2.0

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Study design

Design:

Randomized controlled trial

Study group formation:

Two stages of randomization occurred. In the first stage, individuals who responded to an intake survey and were eligible for the study were randomly selected for inclusion in the cash transfer study sample. A second randomization then occurred assigning individuals to a high ($1,000 per month) or low ($50 per month) cash transfer amount. A total of 3,000 participants were enrolled in the study, with 1,000 participants assigned to the high cash transfer amount program group and 2,000 participants assigned to the low cash transfer amount comparison group.

Time period of study:

The study ran from October 2019 to August 2023. Study enrollment ran from October 2019 to October 2020. Study data collection occurred from October 2019 to August 2023, including 18-month and 30-month follow-up surveys and 11 quarters of follow-up data from unemployment insurance records.

Primary outcome domains examined:

Increase short-term earnings, Increase long-term earnings, Increase short-term employment, Increase long-term employment, Decrease short-term benefit receipt, Decrease long-term benefit receipt

Other outcome domains examined:

Relationship status, barriers to employment, disability status, entrepreneurship, employment quality, employment adequacy, job search and selectivity, employment preferences, time use

Study funded by:

The study was funded by the National Science Foundation (Grant Number 2149344) and private donors.

Results

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Outcome domain	Measure	Timing	Study quality by finding	Comparison group mean	Program group mean	Impact	Units	Sample size
Increase short-term earnings	Quarterly earnings, UI data	Quarter 6	High	5,110.00	4,287.00	-826.00	2022 dollars	1,950
Increase long-term earnings	Quarterly earnings, UI data	Quarter 11	High	5,689.00	4,551.00	-1,141.00	2023 dollars	1,950
Increase short-term employment	Currently employed, follow-up survey	Month 18	High			-0.38	percentage points	2,904
Increase short-term employment	Ever employed, quarterly, UI data	Quarter 6	High	58.70	55.00	-3.70	percentage points	1,950
Increase long-term employment	Currently employed, follow-up survey	Month 30	High			-2.86	percentage points	2,876
Increase long-term employment	Ever employed, quarterly, UI data	Quarter 11	High	61.30	54.30	-7.00	percentage points	1,950
Decrease short-term benefit receipt	Amount of public assistance benefits, annual, follow-up survey	Month 18	High			-87.44	2022 dollars	2,904
Decrease long-term benefit receipt	Amount of public assistance benefits, annual, follow-up survey	Month 30	High			-332.22	2023 dollars	2,876

Short-term outcomes are those measured 18 months or fewer after participants are first offered services. Long-term outcomes are those measured between 18 months and 5 years after participants are first offered services. Very long-term outcomes are those measured 5 years or more after participants are first offered services.

Means are not displayed when not reported or not aligned with the impact estimates. For example, if the impact estimate is regression-adjusted but only unadjusted means are reported in the study, the unadjusted means are not displayed as they are not aligned with the adjusted impact estimate.

Impact estimates are not shown when the estimate units cannot be converted to natural units.

Findings quality key:

High
Moderate

Study quality terms?

The findings quality describe our confidence that a given study’s finding is because of the program. We do not display findings that rate low.

Findings key:

A moderate-to-large favorable finding that is unlikely to be due to chance
A moderate-to-large favorable finding that might to be due to chance
A small favorable finding that is unlikely to be due to chance
A small favorable finding that might be due to chance
A favorable finding that is unlikely to be due to chance, but we cannot determine the standardized effect size
A favorable finding that might be due to chance, but we cannot determine the standardized effect size
A moderate-to-large unfavorable finding that is unlikely to be due to chance
A moderate-to-large unfavorable finding that might to be due to chance
A small unfavorable finding that is unlikely to be due to chance
A small unfavorable finding that might be due to chance
An unfavorable finding that is unlikely to be due to chance, but we cannot determine the standardized effect size
An unfavorable finding that might be due to chance, but we cannot determine the standardized effect size
A finding that is unlikely to be due to chance, but we cannot determine the standardized effect size or direction
A finding of no effect that might be due to chance

Favorable findings are impacts in a direction that is socially desirable. Statistical significance indicates the likelihood that a study finding is due to the program, rather than due to chance. Findings are described as moderate-to-large if the program produced a sufficiently large change in the outcome. An impact receives this designation if the standardized effect size is equal to or greater than 0.25 or equal to or less than -0.25.

Sample characteristics

The sample consisted of individuals between the ages of 21 and 40 with household incomes at or below 300 percent of the federal poverty line in 2019. Individuals living in households where one or more individuals were receiving SSI or SSDI or publicly subsidized housing were excluded from the study. The majority of participants were female (67 percent).

Age

Mean age

30 years

Sex

Female	67%
Male	33%

Race and ethnicity

Black or African American	30%
White, not Hispanic	47%
Hispanic or Latino of any race	22%

The race and ethnicity categories may sum to more than 100 percent if the authors reported race and ethnicity separately; in these cases, we report the category White, rather than White, not Hispanic.

Family status

Parents

57%

Employment and public benefit status

Were employed	58%
Were unemployed	42%

Specific employment barriers

Had a disability

32%

Program implementation

Implementing organization:

Local non-profit organizations

Program history:

The program was a pilot program created for the study.

Program services:

The program group was offered a $1,000 per month unconditional cash transfer for three years.

Mandatory services:

None

Comparison services:

The comparison group was offered a $50 per month unconditional cash transfer for three years.

Service receipt duration:

The unconditional income was offered for 36 months.

Program funding:

The study did not describe the source of program funding.

Study publications

Vivalt, Eva, Elizabeth Rhodes, Alexander W. Bartik, David E. Broockman, Patrick Krause, and Sarah Miller (2025). The employment effects of a guaranteed income: Experimental evidence from two U.S. states. NBER Working Paper 32719. Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w32719

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Study of OpenResearch Unconditional Income Pilot