The COVID-19 pandemic, and the resulting economic recession, have impacted employment in dramatic ways. In the United States, at the start of the pandemic, the unemployment rate more than tripled, disproportionately affecting some groups. Evidence on programs that have effectively improved employment and earnings for people with low incomes during past recessions and recoveries can help policymakers and practitioners target their resources as they seek to improve employment in the wake of the pandemic and beyond.
This report uses a literature scan and a meta-analysis to synthesize the information catalogued by Pathways to Work to understand the programs and types of services with the strongest evidence of improving employment, earnings, and related outcomes for people with low incomes during recessions and recoveries.
Research Questions
- Do programs designed to improve employment outcomes for people with low incomes show evidence of effectiveness during recessions and recoveries?
- What specific types of programs work to improve employment outcomes for people with low incomes during recessions and recoveries from recessions? Are specific types of programs more or less effective during recessions or recoveries?
- How should service providers consider altering operations in response to economic conditions?
Key Findings and Highlights
- On average, programs improve employment outcomes among people with low incomes during recessions and recoveries.
- This report considered 30 programs implemented during recessions. Of these 30 individual programs, 8 had favorable effects on outcomes including employment, earnings, education and training, and long-term public benefit receipt. When we averaged across all 30 programs, average effects were also favorable.
- This report considered 95 programs implemented during recoveries. Twenty-two had favorable effects. When we averaged across all 95 programs, average effects were also favorable.
- Specific types of programs were especially effective during recessions and recoveries.
- During periods of recession, programs that primarily focused on case management or other supports, employment services, and work and work-based learning had evidence of improving outcomes. programs focused on case management or other supports and employment services showed the largest effects during recessions as compared with other types of programs implemented during recessions.
- During periods of recession, case management programs tended to have larger effects than during stable economic conditions, and education and training programs tended to have smaller effects than during stable economic conditions.
- During periods of recovery, programs that primarily focused on education and training, work and work-based learning, employment services, case management or other supports, and incentives and sanctions had evidence of improving outcomes. programs focused on education and training and work and work-based learning showed the largest effects during recoveries as compared with other types of programs implemented during recoveries.
- During periods of recovery, case management programs had larger average effects than case management programs implemented during stable economic conditions.
- During periods of recession, programs that primarily focused on case management or other supports, employment services, and work and work-based learning had evidence of improving outcomes. programs focused on case management or other supports and employment services showed the largest effects during recessions as compared with other types of programs implemented during recessions.
- Providers can consider changing the types of programs or services they emphasize based on economic conditions.
- During periods of recession, when unemployment is increasing, practitioners and policymakers should consider placing more emphasis on case management or other supports, and less emphasis on education and training.
- During periods of recovery, when the unemployment rate is falling, practitioners and policymakers should consider targeting resources toward programs focused on education and training, work and work-based learning, employment services, incentives and sanctions, and case management or other supports.
Methods
For this synthesis report, we used two approaches to address our research questions. First, we conducted a targeted scan for past research that provided theoretical or empirical insights into how or why effects of employment and training programs might differ depending on the economic context (recession, recovery, or stable economic conditions). Next, we used rigorous quantitative techniques known as meta-analysis and meta-regression to summarize the information on programs and studies reviewed for Pathways to Work. These techniques enabled us to identify types of programs with the strongest favorable effects on outcomes during different economic periods.
Citation
Stanczyk, Alexandra, Dana Rotz, Erin Welch, and Andrei Streke. (2021). Synthesis Report: What Works During Economic Recessions and Recoveries? Evidence from Pathways to Work. OPRE Report # 2021-229, Washington, DC: Office of Planning, Research, and Evaluation, Administration for Children and Families, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
