A program can have a negative overall effect on earnings and a supported rating in earnings because of how we determine program effectiveness in a given outcome domain and how we calculate the size of a program’s effects on that outcome domain. In order to receive a supported effectiveness rating, a program must have at least one statistically significant, favorable finding and no statistically significant unfavorable findings in the given outcome domain. The program’s effects, on the other hand, are an average of all findings for a given outcome domain, including those that are not statistically significant.
Take, for example, a study that finds three effects on earnings, one of which is statistically significant and favorable, and two of which are not statistically significant and unfavorable. Because the study identified a statistically significant, favorable effect on earnings and no statistically significant unfavorable findings, the program receives an effectiveness rating of supported on earnings. In calculating its overall effect on earnings, however, we average all the findings in this domain, including the two unfavorable (but statistically insignificant) findings and the one statistically significant, favorable finding. The average of these three findings might result in an overall negative effect on earnings.